By Thanda Sithole, FNB & WesBank Senior Economist
Mining output remained under significant pressure towards the end of 3Q26. Non-seasonally adjusted mining production declined by 10.7% year-on-year (y/y) in September, following a revised 11.7% contraction in August (previously 12.7%). This marked a further deterioration from the 6.9% decline recorded in July, indicating that the sector’s weakness intensified as the quarter progressed. Ten of the 12 mining divisions recorded lower production, pointing to broad-based weakness across the sector (Figure 1).
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, mining output increased by 2.8% month-on-month (m/m) in September, following a sharp 4.8% contraction in August and a 2.1% decline in July. However, the September rebound was insufficient to offset the preceding declines. As a result, mining production contracted by 6.0% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in 3Q26, suggesting that the sector was a significant drag on economic activity (GDP growth) during the quarter.
 Key data insights
The data highlights the broad-based weakness across the mining sector. In September, diamonds recorded the sharpest annual decline, with production contracting by 63.1%. This was followed by iron ore (-23.7%), coal (-13.4%), building materials (-12.5%) and other metallic minerals (-11.6%). PGMs and gold production also declined by 9.9% and 7.5%, respectively. Chromium ore (+13.1%) and manganese ore (+12.8%) were the notable exceptions, continuing to record strong annual growth.
The weakness was also evident in the year-to-date (January–September) figures. Mining production contracted by 2.2% over this period, with sharp declines in diamonds (-24.5%), copper (-16.9%), iron ore (-9.9%), other non-metallic minerals (-9.5%) and coal (-7.7%). In contrast, chromium ore (+16.7%) and manganese ore (+12.6%) recorded comparatively strong growth, while PGM and gold production edged higher by 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. The deterioration in September across several mineral groups, particularly iron ore and diamonds, highlights the persistent production challenges facing the sector.
Looking ahead
The near-term outlook for mining remains challenging, with weak production momentum likely to persist amid infrastructure constraints, elevated operating costs and an uncertain global environment. The Middle East conflict has added to cost pressures, particularly through higher fuel prices, while elevated electricity tariffs and persistent rail and port inefficiencies continue to constrain the sector’s competitiveness and ability to move commodities to export markets.
Nevertheless, the performance of individual mineral groups remains differentiated, with stronger year-to-date growth in chromium and manganese ore providing some support. However, a sustained improvement in mining activity will require more than favourable commodity prices. Addressing structural constraints in electricity supply and transport logistics, alongside improving operational efficiency and investment in mining capacity, will be critical to restoring production growth and strengthening the sector’s contribution to the broader economy.
