China’s CMOC, the world’s top cobalt producer, has clinched a 6,500-ton export quota in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) through December 2025. The allocation comes as the DRC lifts a months-long export ban and shifts to a quota system for strategic minerals.
In February 2025, the DRC government imposed a full suspension on cobalt exports, aiming to counter a dramatic price slide and stabilize the market amid oversupply concerns.
That ban is set to expire on 15 October, and beginning 16 October, the DRC will institute a new quota regime, distributing export rights among producers according to their past export volumes (2022–2024).
Under this new system, the total national export quota is set at 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025. CMOC’s share — 6,500 tons — represents approximately 36% of that national allocation.
How the Quota Breaks Down
CMOC’s quota is divided between its two Congolese operations:
- Kisanfu Mine: 4,250 tons
- Tenke Fungurume Mine: 2,250 tons
For context, CMOC maintained cobalt production during the embargo, recording 61,073 tons in the first half of 2025. Its projected full-year production is in the range of 100,000 to 120,000 tons, suggesting the quota is only a fraction of its output potential.
Other significant allocations under the quota system include:
- Glencore: 3,925 tons (for Kamoto & Mutanda)
- Eurasian Resources Group (ERG): 2,125 tons (for Metalkol)
Additionally, the DRC regulatory authority (ARECOMS) retains the power to revoke quotas if producers violate export rules.
Market Reactions & Price Surge
The prospect of resuming exports under constrained quotas has ignited a sharp rebound in cobalt prices. On 12 October, cobalt was trading at US$42,725 per ton on the London Metal Exchange — more than double its value before the February embargo (~US$21,000).
During the embargo, CMOC’s metals trading arm, IXM, declared force majeure on cobalt contracts, citing the export restrictions as the cause.
Strategic Implications & Risks Ahead
The quota deal reaffirms CMOC’s dominant position in global cobalt supply, amidst surging demand for the metal in battery manufacturing and electric vehicle (EV) value chains. However, several risks and tensions lie ahead:
- Quota vs output mismatch: The 6,500-ton cap covers just ~10% of CMOC’s mid-year production, potentially encouraging stockpiling or off-quota strategies.
- Regulatory oversight: ARECOMS’s revocation powers introduce uncertainty for companies that fail to comply with new standards.
- Price volatility: With global markets adjusting to tighter supply, high price swings are likely in the short term.
- Geopolitical tensions: As demand for cobalt rises in green technologies, the DRC’s export regime will face closer scrutiny from industrial powers seeking security of supply.
In securing the lion’s share of the 2025 quota, CMOC has positioned itself to capitalize on the cobalt rebound. But it must navigate a shifting regulatory environment and ensure adherence to DRC’s evolving rules to sustain its export privileges.
