Zambia’s refined copper exports increased by 7.4 per cent in the first half of 2026, highlighting stronger export performance despite sluggish growth in domestic mine production and persistent challenges affecting smaller mining operations.
Data from the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) show that the country exported 446,100 tonnes of refined copper between January and June 2026, compared with 415,200 tonnes during the corresponding period in 2025.
The increase represents an additional 30,900 tonnes of exports year-on-year.
However, national copper production grew by only 0.45 per cent, reaching approximately 447,200 tonnes, compared with 445,200 tonnes in the first half of last year, according to figures from the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development.
The contrasting growth rates suggest that the increase in export shipments was driven by factors beyond higher domestic mine production, including shipment timing, inventory movements and the processing of copper materials sourced from third parties.
June shipments drive export growth
The export increase was largely concentrated in June, following relatively flat performance during the first five months of the year.
Cumulative refined copper exports stood at approximately 364,400 tonnes by the end of May, only slightly above the 363,100 tonnes recorded during the same period in 2025.
Shipments accelerated significantly in June, reaching approximately 81,700 tonnes, compared with 52,100 tonnes in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.8 per cent.
Copper also continued to play a central role in Zambia’s foreign exchange earnings. Refined copper exports generated approximately K20 billion in June, accounting for about 68 per cent of the country’s total export receipts of K29.6 billion during the month.
Major mines offset weaker small-scale production
Production performance varied across the mining sector, with some of the country’s largest operations recording improvements.
First Quantum Minerals’ Sentinel mine produced 95,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up from 89,500 tonnes a year earlier.
Kansanshi increased production to 89,300 tonnes from 86,600 tonnes, while Barrick Gold’s Lumwana mine recorded 73,000 tonnes, compared with 71,000 tonnes in the corresponding period of 2025.
These gains were partly offset by weaker production elsewhere, particularly among smaller mining operators.
Small-scale copper production declined by 35.2 per cent year-on-year, reflecting constraints including inadequate sulphuric acid supplies and the delayed end of the rainy season.
Smaller producers are particularly vulnerable because many lack dedicated acid plants and sufficient processing infrastructure.
Processing capacity offers additional export support
Another factor supporting refined copper exports was the increased processing of third-party materials.
First Quantum reported that copper anode produced at its Kansanshi smelter from externally sourced concentrate reached 20,152 tonnes in the first half of 2026, compared with 8,609 tonnes during the same period last year.
The development highlights Zambia’s growing role not only as a copper producer but also as a regional processing hub.
Despite the improved export figures, the country faces a significant challenge in achieving its ambition of producing three million tonnes of copper annually by 2031.
The government is relying on new investments, the expansion of existing mines and increased processing capacity to accelerate output.
Extended maintenance at several major smelters during the second half of 2026 could also affect refined production and shipments.
Overall, the first-half figures demonstrate stronger copper export performance, but the modest increase in mine production underlines the need to address operational constraints and expand domestic supply if Zambia is to achieve its long-term production ambitions.