South Africa’s mining sector is experiencing a marked improvement in power reliability, a development that industry leaders say could unlock economic growth and strengthen mining operations — long beleaguered by rolling blackouts.
According to the latest Electricity Update: 2025 report by Mineral Council South Africa, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) — a key measure of how much generating capacity the utility has available — averaged 62.4% in 2025, up from 59.8% in 2024.
The report also shows that South Africa has gone more than 250 days without loadshedding — the rolling power outages that previously crippled industry and households alike — and the EAF has averaged around 70% in the first two weeks of January 2026, surpassing the 68% target set in the Integrated Resource Plan 2025.
Minerals Council economists and industry analysts say the improved electricity performance is already having tangible effects on mining operations.
“Improved electricity availability is no longer a binding constraint on mining activity,” said André Lourens, economist at the Minerals Council, highlighting the importance of reliable power for energy-intensive industries like mining.
He noted that the sustained absence of loadshedding is expected to play a pivotal role in supporting broader economic growth in 2025. Real GDP growth forecasts for South Africa have been raised, with the Minerals Council and other forecasters penciling in growth of between 1.5% and 2% in 2025, a significant increase from projections of below 1% the previous year.
Mining executives have welcomed the turnaround at Eskom, the state-owned utility whose chronic capacity shortfalls had previously suppressed production, inflationary costs, and investor confidence.
Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan, which prioritised improved maintenance and synchronization of additional generating units, has contributed to this positive trajectory. Recent additions — including the synchronisation of Koeberg Unit 2, which added about 970 MW of capacity late last year — and upcoming re-entries for Kusile Unit 6 and Medupi Unit 4, are expected to further bolster supply in 2025.
However, electrifying challenges remain.
While reliability has improved, electricity affordability is a growing concern. The Electricity Update: 2025 report shows that regulatory tariff adjustments have trailed far behind Eskom’s initial cost proposals. Eskom originally applied for 36.15% tariff increases for FY26, but the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) approved a lower 12.74% increase — which still contributes to rising operational costs for miners.
The report also highlights that unplanned outages and maintenance challenges persist, although these have declined compared with previous years. Mining leaders warn that high electricity prices could dampen the competitiveness of South African operations in global markets.
“The affordability of electricity has now taken centre stage, affecting the competitiveness and profitability of the mining sector,” Lourens said.
Industry experts say diversifying energy sources — including on-site renewables — and continued market reforms will be key to sustaining both energy security and economic growth.
As the country enters 2026 with significantly improved power performance, the mining sector remains cautiously optimistic that reliable electricity supply can translate into expanded production, stronger exports, and employment growth — provided energy costs are managed and infrastructure upgrades continue.