Global copper mine production is set to expand. This is according to Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research who foresees a 7.8% increase by an average year-on-year this year as a result of multiple new projects coming online and the low base effects owing to Covid lockdowns having cut output in 2020.
Output is slated to be strong over the next few years as a number of new projects and expansions come online, supported by rising copper prices and demand. Fitch Solutions forecasts global copper mine production to increase by an average 3.7% a year from this year to 2030, with yearly output forecast to increase from 20.2-million tonnes in 2020 to 29.4-million tonnes by the end of the decade.
In Africa, It is expected the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper mining sector to see relatively strong growth this year. A 6.9% increase in production year-on-year this year has been forecasted. In Chile, Fitch Solutions’ growth forecasts are primarily underpinned by the start-up of BHP’s Spence Growth Option project.
2022 and 2023 forecasts
Fitch Solutions has revised its 2022 and 2023 forecasts for the country’s output upwards to 4.7% and 4%, respectively, from 4% and 3.2% previously. In the longer term, a decline in average ore grades across the sector in Chile presents a key downside risk to its production forecast.
Fitch Solutions forecasts China’s copper mine production to increase at an average of 1.3% a year over 2021 to 2030, compared with an average growth of 6.9% over the prior ten-year period. This slowdown in production growth will be driven by the closure of low-grade copper mines in the country and delayed planned capacity expansions, it says.